How does the market structure evolve from power ba

2022-10-04
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How does the market structure evolve from the "famine" of power batteries to overheated investment

after experiencing the "power battery famine" in 2015, battery enterprises have expanded their production in 2016, and peripheral enterprises have also rushed in, resulting in an increasingly fierce competition in the lithium battery industry

according to statistics, the shipment of power batteries climbed to 15.7gwh in 2015, an increase of nearly three times compared with 2014. Among them, lithium iron phosphate battery shipments reached 10.86gwh, accounting for nearly 69% of the market share; The corresponding ternary material battery shipment is 4.26gwh, accounting for 27%; The corresponding battery shipments of lithium manganate, lithium titanate, supercapacitors, nickel metal hydride batteries and other materials are only 0.6gwh, accounting for 4%

in 2015, nearly 70% of the manufacturers ranked in the top 10 in terms of shipments, while only 5 manufacturers with shipments of more than 1GWh were BYD, Ningde new era (catl), Lishen, Hefei GuoXuan high tech and Waterma

according to the national plan at that time, In 2015, the energy density of the power battery module needs to reach 150wh/kg (converted into a single battery, its energy density needs to reach about wh/kg, but the actual situation is that the specific energy of the single battery is only wh/kg, and after being combined into a battery pack, the energy density of the battery system is less than 90wh/kg. The driven battery is "hungry" To overheated investment, how does the market structure evolve

moreover, in terms of safety and reliability, there are great problems in power battery products in 2015, and the high-end production capacity is obviously insufficient. The state also realized the seriousness of the problem and rectified the industry. By 2016, power battery enterprises began to face greater competitive pressure

there are also fault self diagnosis function and man-machine dialogue function

in 2016, the total amount of batteries carried by new energy vehicles with production reached 28 GWH, an increase of 79% year-on-year in 2015. Among them, lithium iron phosphate battery is still the main market, accounting for 73% and carrying capacity as high as 20gwh; However, ternary material batteries were once prohibited from being used on new energy buses, and the carrying capacity in 2016 was only 6.3gwh, accounting for 22%; In addition, batteries made of lithium manganate, lithium titanate, nickel metal hydride batteries, supercapacitors and other materials are also carried in small quantities, accounting for only 5%

in 2016, there were more than 100 supporting battery manufacturers, and only 4 battery manufacturers with more than 1GWh were BYD, Ningde times new energy (catl), GuoXuan high tech and Waterma

according to electric vehicle resources, by the end of 2016, the energy density of power battery cells in China had reached 220wh/kg, and the price was as low as 1.5 yuan/wh

in the first three quarters of 2017, the output of power batteries totaled 32.02gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 4 pairs of long materials above 10mm and cable wire samples below 10mm integrated by 2.1%. Among them, the output of the top 10 power battery enterprises reached 24.48gwh, accounting for 76.5% of the total. Ningde times, BYD, GuoXuan high tech, Waterma, etc. are in the forefront

according to the 10 batches of recommended directories released this year, since the new subsidy policy takes energy density as an important indicator, battery enterprises have taken high energy density batteries as a breakthrough. The energy density of the power battery system of pure electric passenger vehicles is generally higher than 120wh/kg; The energy density of pure electric bus power battery system is generally higher than 115wh/kg; The energy density of battery system of pure electric animal flow vehicle is generally higher than 120wh/kg

according to electric vehicle resources, the current price of power battery system has been less than 1.5 yuan/wh, about 1.3 yuan/wh

the investment direction of the new energy vehicle industry mainly focuses on the new vehicle production capacity and power battery projects. According to incomplete statistics, in the third quarter of this year alone, the total capital of the construction and investment expansion projects of the 15000 ton/year plastic pipe and pipe production base in Chongqing Zhongxian Industrial Park involving power batteries and the "Western China plastic products ecological industrial park" in Liangping exceeded 72 billion yuan. It is expected that by the end of this year, the overall capacity of domestic power batteries is expected to exceed 230gwh, with a year-on-year increase of more than 127%. It is expected that by the end of the year, there will be no more than 15 enterprises with a production capacity of more than 8gwh

from the data of production capacity, price system and energy density, the lithium power battery industry has grown rapidly in recent years, the production capacity has increased rapidly, the price has decreased to varying degrees every year, and the energy density level. Therefore, the existing subsidies and technology access threshold are difficult to form a more stringent reshuffle effect, which can not reflect the will of the country to support the good and the strong. Therefore, the subsidy policy in 2018 may continue to raise the technical threshold and clear the sand

while affirming the development of the industry, we should calmly consider whether such growth rate will be too "great leap forward". When we find out the objects in contact with the research object, how will the market pattern evolve, and how can enterprises break through the limitations of production capacity in the fierce competition and win the market with high-end products

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