How does the steel market recover when the demand

2022-09-19
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Iron and steel Morning Post: how can the steel market recover without demand

core tip: at present, the rebound in downstream demand is still limited, and with the traditional off-season approaching, the overall rebound space of steel prices is very limited. However, we hold a strong and volatile view on the market next week, which is mainly due to people's good expectations for the financial side before the 18th National Congress, and the increase of ex factory prices of products by steel mills, which has pushed up the merchants' cost of taking goods. However, in any case, the rise in steel prices, which is lack of demand, will always give people a feeling of being tough and weak inside, strong outside but weak in the middle

Fubao news on November 2:

[hot topics guide]

● the steel PMI returned to 52.7% in October, and the steel market recovered

while the manufacturing PMI continued to improve in October, the performance of the steel industry, as a typical representative of the manufacturing industry, was eye-catching. According to the latest PMI index of the steel industry released by the professional committee of China IOT steel logistics, it was 52.7% in October, up 9.2 percentage points from the previous month, which is the first time that it has returned to the expansion range since April. Boosted by the good news, rebar futures rose 1.88% yesterday. Industry insiders believe that the steel market has obviously warmed up, but there is still resistance to the further rebound of steel prices due to the accelerated release of steel plant capacity and increased supply pressure. Chongqing film development has accounted for more than 40% of the total plastic packaging materials

interpretation: the PMI of the steel industry has returned to more than 50%, and the futures snail has increased by 68 points. People have speculated whether the steel market will improve on this? However, some analysts pointed out that poor demand and overcapacity will still suppress steel prices, and the road to recovery of steel prices is still long. Fubao information believes that the current rebound in downstream demand is still limited, and with the traditional off-season approaching, the overall rebound space of steel prices is very limited. However, we hold a strong and volatile view on the market next week, which is mainly due to people's good expectations on the financial side before the 18th National Congress, and the increase in the ex factory price of steel mills, which has pushed up the cost of goods collection of merchants. However, in any case, the rise in steel prices, which is lack of demand, will always give people a feeling of being tough and weak inside, strong outside but weak in the middle

the details of the market expectations for each variety next week are as follows: for domestic iron ore, with the freezing of northern mining areas and the control of explosives, the market resources are tight, and the merchants are willing to support prices. It is expected to run smoothly next week; In terms of imported mines, the port transaction is not good, and businesses are in a strong wait-and-see mood, which may weaken in a narrow range next week; In terms of scrap steel, this week, East China Shagang significantly increased the purchase price by 120 yuan/ton (it is rumored that the blast furnace of Shagang was ready for maintenance in November, so scrap steel was reserved), which forced other manufacturers to follow up, injecting a certain degree of driving force into the market. It is expected that the overall market will be strong and volatile next week, with an increase of about 50 yuan/ton. Among them, the large factories in East China will remain stable, and the small factories will continue to increase; Due to the small supply of steel billets in Tangshan market, the merchants are optimistic about the 18th CPC National Congress and are reluctant to sell at a low price. It is expected to rise slightly by about 50 yuan/ton next week; In terms of pig iron, due to the resumption of procurement by most steel mills, the market price of steel smelting tends to rise, and the transaction situation of cast iron and ductile iron has also improved slightly. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of steel smelting will increase by 50 yuan/ton next week, the purchase price of steel mills will increase by yuan/ton, and there is also room for about 50 yuan/ton of cast iron and ductile iron to rise; In terms of coke, due to the expected impact of guaranteed safety and winter storage, it is expected to continue to rise slightly next week, with a range of less than 50 yuan/ton; In terms of building materials, in the context of poor demand and resource shortage, the market is in a dilemma. However, affected by people's good expectations for the financial sector before the 18th CPC National Congress, the market is expected to rise slightly next week, with a range of less than 100 yuan/ton. However, we are not very optimistic about the market in the whole November; In terms of pipes, the manufacturers are not active in low-cost shipment, so the market will be stable and the upward probability is high next week; In terms of special steel, although the demand is poor, under the support of cost support, low inventory and good business mentality, we are bullish on some scarce specifications by 50 yuan/ton next week; The profile still follows the trend of billet, and is expected to rise by 50 yuan/ton next week; The market expectation of cold and hot rolling, medium and heavy plate and strip steel next week is also stable and strong, and the range is basically maintained at about 50 yuan/ton. Downstream demand

in terms of downstream demand, the downstream industry of the steel market in the short term is generally dominated by continuous stabilization, and the infrastructure industry, which is more prominently affected by the expansionary fiscal policy, rebounds faster. Although there are signs of accelerated stabilization in the manufacturing industry, the foundation for stabilization is not stable, especially the real estate market is still relatively depressed, which also restricts the recovery of household appliances, construction machinery and other industries

[related]

● coal and electricity integration or the coal ordering meeting at the end of the year is still not notified.

on October 30, China electricity union released the "national power supply and demand situation in the first three quarters of 2012 and the annual analysis and forecast report", proposing to convert all key contracts of power and coal into medium and long-term contracts, and most market coal contracts into medium and long-term contracts. "The argument that coal and electricity will be merged and the key contract coal will be changed to medium and long-term contract coal has been mentioned repeatedly since this year with the decline of coal prices. At present, we have not received any notice in this regard, and the situation will be clearer this month." Shi Yuming, deputy director of the economic operation Bureau of Shandong Provincial Commission of economy and information technology, said in an interview with Economic Herald on the 1st

● sluggish demand and overcapacity have capped the recovery of the iron and steel industry, which is blocked and long.

"after years of rapid growth, the iron and steel industry has entered the stage of low profit operation. It is impossible to hope that the iron and steel industry will make profits in 2007 only by developing and launching new products from time to time. In August, the whole industry suffered losses, and even if it warms up in the future, it will only get out of losses, which will still be low profits." Ma Guoqiang of Baosteel said frankly at the recent performance presentation

● the net profit of more than 60% of listed auto companies fell

recently, the third quarter reports of listed domestic auto companies have been released one after another. Among the nearly 50 auto and parts companies, only 17 have positive year-on-year net profit growth, and the remaining two-thirds have seen net profit decline or even loss. On the whole, the overall performance of the commercial vehicle market this year is weak, but the performance of the bus sector is excellent. The profits of Jinlong automobile and Yutong Bus have increased significantly to obtain accurate experimental results, which is related to the decline in raw material prices and the preferential policy of the state to vigorously develop public transport. However, some analysts pointed out that the future prospect of the bus market may not be optimistic due to factors such as the economic downturn and the slowing demand of the school bus market

[disk summary]

on the 1st, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 136.16 points, or 1.04%, to 13232.62; The Nasdaq composite index rose 42.83 points, or 1.44%, to 3020.06; The S & P 500 index rose 15.43 points, or 1.09%, to 1427.59. COMEX gold futures for December delivery fell $3.60 to close at $1715.50 per ounce, or 0.2%. Light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (nyemx) rose 85 cents, or 1%, to close at $87.09 a barrel. The US dollar index rose 0.07, or 0.09%, to close at 80.02. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper rose $83.25, or 1.07%, to $7833.25

[futures market analysis]

on the 1st, the futures snail 05 opened 3631 higher, and all the way up strongly. The highest within the day was 3689, and the closing was 3679, up 68, or 1.88%. The capital was positive, the trading volume shrank slightly, and the position decreased by more than 27000 hands. The daily K-line collection and release volume rose Zhongyang, breaking through the suppression of the average consolidation platform. The operation of technical indicators was neutral and strong, and the market continued the upward trend. Pay attention to the pressure of 3700 platform. Spot continued to consolidate at a high level, stable and strong. In terms of operation, short-term multiple orders are held, and the middle line is reduced when it is high; Empty orders leave the site in the short term and are held in the middle line. The expected market is strong and volatile, which has more impact on the spot

[steel market dynamics]

● ore: Platts index 62% PB reported $121 on the 1st, stable compared with the previous working day. In terms of port spot goods, Tianjin Port accounted for 63.5% of Indian Pink yuan/wet ton; Rizhao Port 62% PB fine ore yuan/wet ton; Qingdao port 63.5% Brazilian coarse flour yuan/wet ton; Smooth transition of port spot goods. In terms of domestic mines, the factory price of Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder on a wet basis, excluding tax, is Zunhua yuan/ton; Qian'an yuan/ton. During the new moon price adjustment cycle, the steel mills in central and southern China rose by different ranges; However, the northern market is not good enough. Both the supply and demand sides are mainly on the sidelines, and it is expected that the transition will be smooth

● billet: on the 1st, the market and futures snail rose sharply, but the transaction of finished products in Tangshan was still tepid, and the transaction of billet did not improve significantly. The market waited for the 18th CPC National Congress, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the material was stable, medium and strong in the short term. In the afternoon, the billets remained stable. The ex factory price of ordinary carbon billets including Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglong, Kaiheng and Jianyuan was 3280 yuan/ton, and the low alloy was 3400 yuan/ton; The dealer's bare price is 3180; Changli, including tax, was sent to Tangshan 3300

● coke: on the 1st, the factory tax included price of Rizhao grade II metallurgical coke was 1440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, Yinchuan grade III metallurgical coke was 940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, Xingtai quasi grade I metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, Taiyuan grade II metallurgical coke was 1260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, Linyi grade II metallurgical coke was 1370 yuan/ton, and Jiexiu grade II metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, The flat warehouse tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin port is yuan/ton, the ex factory tax price of Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke is yuan/ton, the ex factory tax price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke is yuan/ton, and the ex factory tax price of Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke is yuan/ton. The coke market continues to rise steadily. Steel mills are highly motivated to purchase, and the rising price of coking coal plays a supporting role in coke storage costs. The short-term market will still be easy to rise but difficult to fall

● building materials: at the close of trading on the 1st, the transaction price of grade II conch of Hegang in Beijing market was 3650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; The transaction price of Zhongtian secondary snails in Shanghai market was yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; The transaction price of grade II conch of Guangzhou steel in Guangzhou market was 3990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day

● plate: at the close of the 1st day, the closing price of hot coil in Shanghai market was yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was high. The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was yuan/ton, and the low-level resources were reduced. The closing price of hot coil in Lecong market was yuan/ton, and the business mentality was good

[forecast today]

● building materials: on the 1st, the national building materials were mainly stable, and some markets were strong. At the beginning of the month, the market mentality was boosted by the good start of the capital market, but the policies of large steel mills such as Shagang were stable, and there was no significant change in the end capital, the purchasing attitude was cautious, and the trading volume was not followed up. In view of the approach of the 18th CPC National Congress, the policy was empty, and the cost and social inventory were tight, it was expected that the second-class conch of Beijing Hegang would be 3670 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Shanghai Zhongtian secondary conch yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou Guanggang grade II conch was 4020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day

● plate: in terms of the market, the market continued to rise in the long term yesterday, and most mainstream cities chose to wait and see for a while in the morning. However, with the heavy news that Shagang significantly raised the factory price and PMI returned to the boom and bust line in October, the mentality of merchants improved slightly, and the phenomenon of price exploration continued to occur, especially in South China. At present, the support of less goods is still strong, and it is expected that the National hot roll will be consolidated. The mainstream price of 5.5mm ordinary coil in Shanghai market is yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of 5.5mm Tanggang in Tianjin market is yuan/ton; Lecong market 5.5mm Liugang mainstream quotation yuan/ton

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